“国之觞，乡之愁”——大陆对台政策分析-通向中南海-龙鸣网

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“国之觞，乡之愁”——大陆对台政策分析(1)

2008-04-30 08:02:22 作者：来源：互联网浏览次数：7 文字大小：【大】【中】【小】

　　论文虽然集中探讨两岸关系这一原则上是中国内政问题，但也一直是涉及中国外交的中心问题，中美关系中的“核心问题，原则问题”。所以将求归入中国外交的方向。台湾问题是中国最核心的国家利益，涉及对台政策的调查和研究工作，历来受到国家的重视。特别是自2004年以来，大陆对台政策有了明显的调整，出现了一系列值得关注的新举措。但是，已有的政策研究多侧重于诠释性的论证，缺少具体的数据评估和效果分析，而已有的数据和政策的整理，多是短期的实时分析，或者拘泥于对各个时期情况的孤立收集，以事件评论或是年度大事记的形式出现，缺少长期的、分阶段的比较性研究。本论文的着眼点，即在于以数据为依据，以事件发展的阶段性为特征，在上述两个方面有所突破。　　本文拟采用问题研究与对策建议相结合，宏观研究与微观研究相结合的方法，充分利用图书、网络及专家老师的指导，在大量现有资料的基础上，从前人经验及我们的思考相结合入手，对大陆从1996年到2006年的对台政策进行分析。　　对于政策选取的标准，我将考虑到三个方面：政策出台时间分布要均匀；考虑政策与选举时间的间隔及对应性；政策的影响力大小。例如，选取1996年台海导弹危机，2003年两岸包机直航，2005年《反分裂国家法》的出台等事件。　　对于评估政策效果的事件，我们主要选取1996年台湾地区领导人选举、2000年台湾地区领导人选举、2004年台湾地区领导人选举、2005年台湾三合一选举等，以及相关政策出台后的第一时间的民调结果。　　有效的遏制台独分裂势力，为国家的和平统一创造有利条件，这是大陆方面对台政策的出发点和根本目的。目前，台湾在政治上台独势力的消长，主要反映在台湾的选举政治和基础民意的调查上。这两项标准，作为台独支持势力和反对势力较量的着力点，也就是本文衡量大陆对台政策效果的重要评估依据。　　有一段时间，大陆对台的一些举措，往往不能很好达到所要求的遏制台独活动的效果，也无法引起台湾民众的共鸣。以致在两岸关系上，处于一种相对被动的局面。在过去的两年中，大陆采取了正视现状，增进两岸人民的交流，提升自身形象等策略，试图夺回台海局势的主导权。本文的研究目的是，希望通过对九十年代中期以来的十年间大陆对台政策的效果分析，从而找出其对于台湾民意，乃至政局的影响点。　　另外，本论文还试图勾勒出大陆对台政策的发展轨迹，比较不同阶段的得失，回答如何更好的争取民心，如何更好的发挥经济、文化等因素的作用，这些对于当今的两岸关系研究中，具有重要意义的问题。　　本文主题部分分为五章，第一章是大陆对台政策的概念及界定、第二章是大陆对台政策十年间效果的综合分析、第三章是从台湾民意变化看政策效果、第四章是影响政策效果的因素分析、第五章是政策事件个案效果分析，最后部分是结论。

Analysis of Chinese mainland’s policy towards Taiwan

Huang Rihan(International Relations)

Directed by professor Shulong Chu

Taiwan issue is China’s core national interest, and research on its policy towards Taiwan has always been paid great attention to. Since 2004, there has been a series of noteworthy measures taken, which indicates that mainland’s policy on Taiwan has undergone a significant adjustment. However, existing research mostly focuses on explanative argument, and lacks in specific evaluation of statistics and analysis on policy efficacy. Meanwhile, existing study into statistics and policies is mostly short-term case-specific analysis, in the form of event commentary or annuals, thus in want of long-term, comparative research. This thesis focuses on statistics and event development process, attempting to improve in both regards.

This thesis will analyze Chinese mainland’s policy towards Taiwan from 1996 to 2006 by combining event analysis with policy recommendation, macro research with micro research, and fully utilizing information from books and internet, drawing on experts’ research findings and experience.

As to the criterion of policy citation for analysis, three aspects are considered: the adoption of these polices should be within regular intervals; these policies should be related to political elections; these policies should bring about major impacts. Thus, instances such the Taiwan Straits missile crisis in 1996, direct flight of chartered planes across the straits and the adoption of Anti-Secession Law in 2005 are selected.

As to analysis on policy efficacy, cited are elections of Taiwan leader in 1996、2000 and 2004, Taiwan’s “Three in One” Elections in 2005, elections for Taibei and Gaoxiong mayors in 2006, as well as results of opinion polls immediately after the issuing of related policies.

The departure point and ultimate aim of mainland’s policy towards Taiwan is to effectively contain Taiwan independence forces, creating favorable conditions for peaceful reunification. Currently, the fluctuation of Taiwan independence forces is reflected by Taiwan electoral politics and opinion polls. As these two points are where pro-independence forces and anti-independence forces collide, they are important basis for evaluation of mainland’s policy towards Taiwan in this thesis.

For some time, some of mainland’s measures could not meet with expected results, nor could they be sympathized with by Taiwan people, thus placing mainland in a passive position. In the past two years, Chinese mainland has adopted such strategies as facing the status quo, promoting people’s exchanges cross the straits, improving its image and so on, with a view to regaining an upper hand in the cross-straits interaction. The intention of this thesis is to identify the impact point of mainland’s policy on the opinion of Taiwan people, as well as on Taiwan’s political situation, by analyzing the efficacy of these policies of the past decade since mid 1990s.

Furthermore, this thesis will attempt to draw of sketch of the development track of mainland’s policy towards Taiwan, compare successes and losses of different stages and answer such fundamental questions of research on cross-straits relations as how to better gain the support of Taiwan people, how to better put into play the economic and cultural factors.

These thesis is divided into 5 chapters, namely, the definition of mainland’s policy towards Taiwan; the overall analysis of the efficacy of mainland’s policy towards Taiwan over the past decade; comments on policy efficacy by looking at the influence on Taiwan people’s opinion; analysis of factors that influence policy efficacy and analysis of separate policies, which is followed by a conclusion.

Key words: Mainland’s Policy towards Taiwan, Peaceful Reunification, One Country Two Systems, Elections

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